Is the Linux desktop dead? The software industries seismic shifts

Being a Linux distributor we get asked all the time if we think the dream of Linux on the desktop is dead.  I personally don't think it is.  Although Microsoft continues to dominate the desktop market with Windows we have had a lot of infiltration into the desktop market.  First, you have to look at what a Linux distribution is.  While some people will point to ChromeOS and Android as "Linux on the desktop" they aren't.  They USE the Linux kernel but you can take the UI and the Application frameworks and move them over to FreeBSD or even a customized version of Darwin and you can accomplish the same product.  What makes ChromeOS and Android successful are their capabilities and features and not Linux.  If you ask the average ChromeOS or Android user if they use Linux they will tell you no.  I personally look at ChromeOS and Android in the same way I look at Tivo.  I don't consider TivoOS a Linux distribution, its a product that uses the Linux kernel.  What I consider a Linux distribution is a product that uses the Linux kernel, the GNU framework and the ability to run the thousands of available Linux applications on the market today without having to jump through hoops to get there.

The Linux desktop has overcome many obstacles that held it back in the past.  Hardware support, ease of use, ease of installation and application support.  Gone are the days of excuses for having to recompile kernel code to get audio and graphics drivers to work properly (for most of the general computing public anyway) Today there are new excuses; Microsofts too powerful !!! Apples to powerful !!!!  Googles too powerful !!!!! and those are just as I sated; excuses.

The Linux community has to channel the words of a man they hated for years.  Steve Jobs and his speech from 1997.  We need to stop saying to ourselves "For Linux to win, Microsoft has to lose"  or "For Linux to win, Apple has to lose" or "For Linux to win, Google has to lose" because NOBODY has to lose because NOBODY is going to win.  Psychologically we are fighting a battle that no one will win or lose.  There are billions of computer users out there.  Windows will not be for everyone, macOS will not be for everyone, and ChromeOS will not be for everyone.  If you look at the US government, for example, they use many different distributions of Linux, they STILL use many flavors of UNIX and they still even use lots of Windows PC's (For you macOS fans who are gonna start typing frantically on your keyboard that I forgot Mac, no I didn't I lumped it in there with UNIX)  There are hundreds of automobile manufacturers on the market today, there are hundreds of PC manufacturers in the world and they ALL do pretty decent business.

So how did the software industry get screwed up so badly?  Because when the software industry was born you had a bunch of dumbasses who didn't know what they were doing and who entered into lopsided deals or flew planes when manufacturers came calling.  You can't really blame Gates or Jobs for what happened at the dawn of this industry.  They filled the nooks and crannies of what these computer manufacturers were looking for and they ran with it.  We as consumers had plenty of opportunities to kick them off the tracks but we didn't.  The software industry is starting to mature.  Its only 40 years old.  The players in the automobile industry didn't stop trying to shank each other until about 60 years after the birth of the first car.  Starting to mature means some companies will live and some companies will die.  Some will be missed and some will be good riddance.

So the question of; Is the Linux desktop dead?  No.  It will never die.  Just like the Windows desktop will never die and the Mac desktop will never die and ChromeOS will never die.  There are plenty of computer users out there and trust me, I have seen it first hand and they are very diverse.